July 30, 2025: Bank of Canada Holds Rates at 2.75%

On July 30, 2025, the Bank of Canada held its overnight policy interest rate at 2.75% for the third consecutive meeting, while the Bank Rate remained at 3.00% and the deposit rate at 2.70%.

No surprises here — most economists and market watchers had anticipated this hold.

In the official statement, Governor Tiff Macklem pointed to an economy that remains sluggish but stable, with inflation continuing to ease. While headline numbers have been somewhat volatile, core inflation — the figure the Bank of Canada watches most closely — is softening, giving the Bank room to hold and observe.

At the same time, U.S.-Canada trade tensions and ongoing global uncertainty continue to weigh on their decision-making.

💡 The door to rate cuts? Still wide open — and increasingly likely this fall.

🔍 What This Means for Buyers & Sellers in Central Alberta

For Buyers:

• If you are carrying a variable-rate mortgage, your payments remain unchanged — for now.

• If you are shopping for a home, fixed mortgage rates remain relatively flat, as they tend to follow bond yields more than the Bank of Canada’s rate itself.

• Borrowing conditions may gradually improve as inflation cools, but we are not back to “cheap money” territory yet.

Key Takeaway:
This hold gives buyers a bit of breathing room. If you are already shopping, you are not facing added urgency. But if you are flexible, waiting until fall may bring a rate cut that improves affordability.

For Sellers:

The good news? No increase in interest rates means affordability is not getting worse for potential buyers.

That said, buyer demand remains soft — many are still watching and waiting for more significant movement.

If you are listing a recreational or seasonal property, this is the time to lean into your home’s unique features and location. Buyers are out there — just more selective than before.

Key Takeaway:
Be strategic. With the market still cautious, accurate pricing, value-driven presentation, and sharp marketing are more important than ever — especially in niche markets like lakefront or rural retreats.

 Looking Ahead: September 17 Rate Forecast

A Reuters poll of economists (July 2025) shows:

• Broad consensus for the July hold (which we just saw)

• 64% expect a 0.25% rate cut in September, lowering the overnight rate to 2.50%

• Some projections call for two cuts by year-end, possibly ending 2025 at 2.25%

• Analysts from TD Economics, Nesto, and Altus Group all suggest that if inflation trends hold steady, rate cuts are coming

📌 Bottom Line & What to Watch

• July 30: Bank holds at 2.75% ✅

• September 17: A 0.25% cut is looking likely

• Year-End Forecast: Overnight rate somewhere between 2.25%–2.50%

If you are buying, selling, or renewing a mortgage later this year, staying informed will help you make the most of the timing. If you have questions about what this all means for your specific situation, I am always happy to chat.

📬 Let’s talk strategy — whether you are moving soon or just keeping an eye on the market.

Warmly,
Susan Cramer
REALTOR® | Coldwell Banker OnTrack Realty